Special Lecture #1. 

GMPA Lecture Series Explores China's Rise and Its Global Implications

Cyrenes M. Moncawe and Jedut Arioditto Sutoyo (2023 GMPA)

  Students from the Global Master of Public Administration (GMPA) gathered on October 5, 2023 to participate in a thought-provoking lecture titled "China's Rise and Looming Global Conflicts" as part of the annual GMPA lecture series. The lecture featured Professor Emeritus of the Seoul National University (SNU) Chung Hongik as the keynote speaker, with Professor Ko Kilkon, Director of the GMPA serving as the chair and discussant.

  The event, held in Room 101 of Building 57 within the Global School of Public Administration (GSPA) premises, delved into several critical aspects of China's ascent in the global landscape and its potential implications on regional and global dynamics. The lecture highlighted various points of discussion, including:

Xi's vision of China: The China dream

Professor Chung Hongik discussed President Xi's vision for China, emphasizing China's desire to return to the historical predominance it held in Asia before Western influence. This vision includes regaining control over territories like Tibet and Taiwan. Additionally, China aims to exert influence along its borders and in adjacent seas while commanding respect on the global stage.

China's Belt and Road Initiative

The lecture also touched upon China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to enhance infrastructure connectivity across multiple continents and promote economic cooperation. However, it has also faced criticism and concerns about debt sustainability, transparency, and geopolitical implications, particularly with regard to China's growing influence in participating countries.

10 reasons why China may not become the next superpower

Professor Hongik outlined ten reasons why China might face challenges in becoming the world's next superpower. These reasons include issues such as pollution, a large population, demographic concerns, poverty gap, wage increase, regional tensions, emigration, state-owned enterprises, reform, and military issues.

8 reasons for China's economic slowdown

The lecture referred to a 2016 article from The European that presented eight reasons for China's economic slowdown. These reasons ranged from rising wages and prices to a real estate bubble and competition from India.

Triggers to war and possibilities for avoidance

Professor Hongik discussed various potential triggers for conflict, such as territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the situation with Taiwan. He emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts to prevent war between the United States and China.

Offensive Realism and Hegemony

The lecture touched on the concept of offensive realism, suggesting that states aim to maximize their power and prevent the emergence of peer competitors in their regions.

Signs of China's Economic Challenges

Professor Hongik concluded the lecture by highlighting several indicators of potential economic challenges in China, including a housing bubble, stock market fluctuations, high levels of debt, and trade tensions with the United States.